Bitcoin risks 15% dip by October, but $100K is due in 2026 — Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) can easily end up below $25,000 next month, says one longtime market observer.

In a new BTC price outlook, Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, put the odds of a dip to local lows at 50/50.

BTC price may see “last big dip” in September

While Bitcoin bulls continue their breakout attempts above $30,000, various popular traders and analysts have their sights on lower levels.

Peterson, well known for his technical insights, now believes that typical August and September performance may yield a return to the $25,000 mark.

Uploading a chart of monthly performance statistics for BTC/USD to X, he concluded that a “last big dip” may hit before September is over. Put another way, BTC price downside over the next six weeks or so could top 15%.

“There is a 50% chance that bitcoin will drop below $25,000 before the end of September,” accompanying commentary stated.

“This would be the last big dip before the next big bull run cycle commences.”

As Cointelegraph reported, September is traditionally a “bad” month for Bitcoin bulls. Since 2017, BTC price action has finished the month lower than its starting price every year.

August, meanwhile, is a mixed bag, offering either modest gains or modest losses with 2017 as a notable exception.

Bitcoin Best Price Forward says $100,000 by mid-2026

Continuing, Peterson doubled down on Bitcoin’s bullish outlook.

Related: Bitcoin price can go ‘full bull’ next month if 200-week trendline stays

In addition to predicting a final significant retracement before the bull run, recent analysis gave a deadline of less than 1,000 days — less than three years — for BTC/USD to hit a giant $100,000.

This came courtesy of the “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which delivers price prognoses for specific dates in the future.

Formerly known as a calculator of Bitcoin’s “never look back price,” Its claim to fame lies in correctly predicting Bitcoin’s last ever visit to $10,000 in September 2020.

“If you dismissed Bitcoin’s ‘Lowest Price Forward’ trend because of the dip in 2022, remember that Bitcoin’s price normally dips below the trend after a bear market,” a confident Peterson wrote in an X post on Aug. 8.

“Bear markets are for waiting, not doubting. Bitcoin is less than 1000 days away from $100K.”