Bitcoin (BTC) can easily end up below $25,000 next month, says one longtime market observer.
In a new BTC price outlook, Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, put the odds of a dip to local lows at 50/50.
BTC price may see “last big dip” in September
While Bitcoin bulls continue their breakout attempts above $30,000, various popular traders and analysts have their sights on lower levels.
Peterson, well known for his technical insights, now believes that typical August and September performance may yield a return to the $25,000 mark.
Uploading a chart of monthly performance statistics for BTC/USD to X, he concluded that a “last big dip” may hit before September is over. Put another way, BTC price downside over the next six weeks or so could top 15%.
“There is a 50% chance that bitcoin will drop below $25,000 before the end of September,” accompanying commentary stated.
“This would be the last big dip before the next big bull run cycle commences.”
As Cointelegraph reported, September is traditionally a “bad” month for Bitcoin bulls. Since 2017, BTC price action has finished the month lower than its starting price every year.
August, meanwhile, is a mixed bag, offering either modest gains or modest losses with 2017 as a notable exception.
Bitcoin Best Price Forward says $100,000 by mid-2026
Continuing, Peterson doubled down on Bitcoin’s bullish outlook.
In addition to predicting a final significant retracement before the bull run, recent analysis gave a deadline of less than 1,000 days — less than three years — for BTC/USD to hit a giant $100,000.
This came courtesy of the “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which delivers price prognoses for specific dates in the future.
“If you dismissed Bitcoin’s ‘Lowest Price Forward’ trend because of the dip in 2022, remember that Bitcoin’s price normally dips below the trend after a bear market,” a confident Peterson wrote in an X post on Aug. 8.
“Bear markets are for waiting, not doubting. Bitcoin is less than 1000 days away from $100K.”