Bitcoin block rewards will likely evolve significantly over the coming decade, driven by substantial shifts in Bitcoin prices and fee changes. One popular model for projecting future prices is the Power Law, coined by Giovanni Santostasi. Based on this model, CryptoSlate has calculated the Bitcoin block reward over the next ten years.
The Power Law Model predicts Bitcoin trading within a set range, illustrated on the left of the table below by the upper and lower bound prices, with the regression fit aligning with a ‘fair price.’ The right-hand columns show the Bitcoin block reward based on these prices, considering future Bitcoin halvings.
| Year | Upper Bound Price ($) | Fair Price ($) | Lower Bound Price ($) | Block Reward Upper ($) | Block Reward Fair ($) | Block Reward Lower ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 274,548 | 69,100 | 24,517 | 857,965 | 215,903 | 76,617 |
| 2025 | 379,955 | 100,805 | 35,767 | 1,187,362 | 315,017 | 111,772 |
| 2026 | 515,561 | 143,725 | 50,995 | 1,611,130 | 449,143 | 159,362 |
| 2027 | 684,305 | 199,734 | 70,868 | 2,138,456 | 624,170 | 221,464 |
| 2028 | 897,270 | 273,663 | 97,099 | 1,401,985 | 427,598 | 151,718 |
| 2029 | 1,163,524 | 370,148 | 131,333 | 1,818,008 | 578,357 | 205,209 |
| 2030 | 1,491,596 | 494,028 | 175,287 | 2,330,620 | 771,920 | 273,887 |
| 2031 | 1,884,046 | 648,109 | 229,958 | 2,943,823 | 1,012,671 | 359,310 |
| 2032 | 2,369,328 | 845,919 | 300,143 | 3,702,076 | 1,321,749 | 468,974 |
| 2033 | 2,901,380 | 1,070,486 | 379,822 | 4,533,406 | 1,672,634 | 593,473 |
| 2034 | 3,579,973 | 1,366,669 | 484,912 | 5,593,709 | 2,135,421 | 757,676 |
Note that these figures do not account for fees paid to miners or changes in either the hash rate or Bitcoin difficulty. An increase or decrease in fees would directly alter the overall block reward, whereas changes in the hash rate and difficulty will make it harder or easier to mine Bitcoin, affecting the cost to mine Bitcoin.
The projections indicate a steady rise in the potential price of Bitcoin, with the upper bound price expected to increase from $274,548 in 2024 to $3,579,973 by 2034. Based on these price estimates, the corresponding block rewards suggest that miners could see their potential rewards at the upper bound price grow from approximately $857,965 in 2024 to $5,593,709 by 2034. However, the fair and lower bound prices, which provide more conservative estimates, show a different picture, with fair price block rewards starting at $215,903 in 2024 and increasing to $2,135,421 by 2034, and lower bound price rewards growing from $76,617 to $757,676 over the same period.
These projections stress the importance of efficiency and cost management for miners. For example, after the next halving in 2028, Bitcoin rewards could fall lower than they are…
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