Monero (XMR) has shown a surprising resilience against the United States Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies that pushed the prices of most of its crypto rivals — including the top dog Bitcoin (BTC) — lower last week.
XMR price closed the previous week 2.37% higher at $217, data from Binance shows. In comparison, BTC, which typically influences the broader crypto market, finished the week down 11.55%. The second-largest crypto, Ether (ETH), also plunged 11% in the same period.
While the crypto market wiped off $163.25 billion from its valuation last week, down nearly 9%, Monero’s market cap increased by $87.7 million, suggesting that many traders decided to seek safety in this privacy-focused coin.
XMR near critical support
Monero started the new week with a selloff, with XMR plunging by nearly 4% to around $208 on May 9.
The decline brought the token near its key support level — the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave in the chart below) near $214. The wave also coincides with another price floor — the 0.618 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $38-swing low to the $491-swing low.
Interestingly, the XMR price drop is part of a pullback move that began on April 21 from about $290. In turn, the reversal to the downside surfaced amid a falling wedge breakout whose upside target comes to be around $490.
That could result in either of these two outcomes: XMR breaks below its support confluence around $214 to test the wedge’s upper trendline as support, which also coincides with the token’s 200-week EMA near $161.50, or the token rebounds from the support confluence and continues its move toward the wedge’s technical upside target near $490.
The overall crypto market trend looks biased toward bears in a higher interest rate environment. This, coupled with Monero’s erratic but consistent positive correlation with Bitcoin, could eventually weigh XMR lower, resulting in a decline toward the wedge’s top around $160 in Q2, down about 20% from today’s price.
Strong XMR fundamentals
XMR’s bearish setup could see a period of price spikes as Monero inches closer to its tentative hard fork, scheduled for July 16.
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