Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s bearish MACD cross and engulfing candle on the three-week chart signal a cycle top.
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Market analysts suggest that 558 days post-2024 halving indicate the Bitcoin bull cycle’s top is imminent.
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Other analysts say BTC price still has room to run, with $180,000 still in the cards.
Bitcoin (BTC) price traded 3% lower on Thursday and 13% below its $126,000 all-time high reached on Oct. 6, with some traders suggesting that this level may have marked the cycle top for BTC.
Bitcoin technicals suggest “top is in“
Bitcoin’s price action appears to have confirmed a “bearish MACD crossover,” according to one crypto analyst, who suggests this could signal the end of the BTC bull run based on historical patterns.
Related: Fed signals ’end of QT’: What does it mean for Bitcoin price?
There is a “pending bearish MACD crossover on Bitcoin’s 3-week chart,” analyst Jesse Olson said in an X post on Wednesday, adding:
“The histogram also shows longer-term bearish divergence.”
The crossover was confirmed once the moving average convergence indicator (MACD) (blue wave)— a technical indicator used by traders to identify trend changes and momentum shifts — moved below the signal line (orange wave), as shown in the chart below.
Note that the last two times MACD sent this bearish signal were at the height of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, marking the top for Bitcoin.
The same three-week chart shows the appearance of a “bearish engulfing candle” similar to the ones seen at the peak of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.
These and “several other warnings suggest that the top is in,” Jesse Olson said in another post on Thursday.
These include declining network activity, pointing to reduced onchain demand. Data from Nansen reveals that the number of daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network decreased by 30% in October, from 632,915 to 447,225.
A reducing number of daily active addresses signals waning network engagement and less user demand, often preceding price corrections or prolonged consolidation.
Bitcoin’s imminent cycle peak
Pseudonymous trader and investor Mister Crypto backed the cycle top thesis with the assertion that Bitcoin has reached a point where it “historically peaks out,” based on its four-year halving cycle.
Looking back at past Bitcoin halving cycles in 2012 and 2016, there’s indeed a similar…
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