Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Set To Collide With TradFi’s Debt Wall

Key takeaways:

• $33 trillion in debt will mature across advanced economies in 2026, forming a refinancing wall that could drain liquidity and weigh on risk-on assets as borrowing costs remain high.

•  Global liquidity is projected to peak in late 2025, historically a precursor to tighter markets.

•  Secular bull markets since WWII have lasted 18 to 19 years; the current one, starting in 2009, may stretch into 2028 despite mid-cycle turbulence.

A growing number of crypto market experts argue that the familiar four-year Bitcoin cycle is gone. They point to several factors: 95% of Bitcoin is already mined, roughly 1 million BTC now sits in corporate treasuries, and macroeconomic and regulatory forces increasingly shape price dynamics.

Whether the halving cycle has disappeared entirely or simply made room for other price drivers, Bitcoin is no longer a world apart. It moves with traditional finance, where cycles in liquidity, refinancing, and longer-term valuations set the tone. Understanding these TradFi rhythms could be as crucial for Bitcoin’s future as its own halving cycle.

The refinancing cycle: A 2026 stress test

Global debt reached about $315 trillion in Q1 2024, according to the Institute of International Finance. With an average maturity of seven years, roughly $50 trillion in obligations must be rolled over each year, points out the Financial Times.

The real test comes in 2026, when the annual “maturity wall” in advanced economies will climb nearly 20%, topping $33 trillion—almost three times these economies’ yearly capital expenditures. Refinancing such volumes at today’s higher rates could strain governments and corporations alike, especially those with weaker credit profiles.

This maturity wall could be a real stress test for risk-on assets—equities, high-yield bonds, emerging-market debt, and crypto. Massive refinancing needs will absorb market liquidity, leaving less room for riskier assets. With tight funding conditions (even if the Fed starts cutting rates this fall, they will remain well above 2010–2021 levels when much of this debt was issued), this sets up a squeeze where capital costs rise, credit spreads widen, and investors demand higher risk premiums. Risk-on assets, which depend heavily on abundant liquidity and low funding costs, could face valuation pressure, reduced inflows, and sharper volatility as refinancing demand crowds out marginal borrowers.

For Bitcoin, this situation will correspond to the final leg of its…