David Bailey, entrepreneur and Bitcoin adviser to US President Donald Trump, says there won’t be another Bitcoin bear market for several years amid growing institutional interest in the crypto market.
But the four-year cycle says otherwise, and crypto analysts tell Cointelegraph that there are more than a few headwinds that could tank the markets.
It’s the “first time we’ve ever seen real institutional buy in,” said Bailey in an X post on Saturday.
“Every Sovereign, Bank, Insurer, Corporate, Pension, and more will own Bitcoin. The process has already begun in earnest, yet we haven’t even captured 0.01% of the Total addressable market (TAM). We’re going so much higher. Dream big,” he added.
He said earlier institutional interest was just “outliers with marginal bets.”
Bailey, founder of Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc., served as an adviser during Trump’s presidential campaign and is credited with being a central figure in the president’s Bitcoin pivot.
Over the last two years, institutions have steadily gained exposure to crypto through investment vehicles like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing crypto treasuries — with total holdings surging past $100 billion, made mostly of Bitcoin.
Reasons for a crypto bear market
A June report from venture capital (VC) firm Breed suggested that few of these treasury companies would survive long term, which could trigger the next crypto bear market.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, ZX Squared Capital co-founder and chief investment officer CK Zheng said crypto is still highly correlated with the stock market; if it slows into a bear market, “crypto will follow.”
Earlier this year, the stock market nearly slipped into a bear market, but according to Zheng, it rebounded, and there have been several developments since that lower the odds of a repeat.
“The question is for the remainder of the year, whether the bear market is going to happen or not, and that’s an interesting discussion, but my personal view is it’s probably unlikely, especially after the Fed pivoted to lower interest rates, and Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday,” he said.
“Right now it’s one of the biggest signals in terms of the Fed willing to cut the interest rate, most likely, in September, and that’s probably the beginning of a low-interest-rate cycle, given the economic data and the labor market softening.”
Meanwhile, Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Australian crypto broker Swyftx,…
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