ETH Treks Toward $5K As Data Confirms Trend Change

Key takeaways:

• Ethereum network activity surged by 63% in 30 days, strengthening the case for an imminent breakout to $5,000. 

• Ether futures open interest jumped to $69 billion, highlighting robust demand for leveraged exposure.

Ether (ETH) rallied to its highest level in nearly four years on Friday, sparking $351 million in liquidations from leveraged bearish bets. The surge came after investors priced in a less restrictive monetary policy in the United States, following remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Will this momentum finally push ETH beyond the $5,000 barrier?

Nasdaq rally signals renewed appetite for ETH and risk assets

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index climbed 1.8%, suggesting investors are shedding risk aversion and reallocating away from fixed-income positions. Ether has already gained 33% over the past 30 days, and three indicators now point to further strength, potentially solidifying the ongoing bull run. With ETH trading above $4,800, a breakout to new all-time highs could be minutes or days away.

Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium amplified expectations of multiple rate cuts: “The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” According to the CME FedWatch tool, bond markets are pricing in a 45% chance of rates falling to 3.5% or below by March 2026, up from 37% the previous week. Lower borrowing costs ease financial pressures on companies, broadly reducing systemic risks.

Ether is also drawing strength from surging onchain activity. Transactions on the Ethereum network jumped 63% in the past 30 days, while active addresses rose 26%. For comparison, Solana managed just a 2% increase in transactions, with active addresses declining by 14%, according to Nansen data. Meanwhile, BNB Chain posted a steep 50% drop in transaction count.

While onchain metrics highlight growing activity, futures markets reveal a more cautious stance. ETH futures contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium over spot prices to account for settlement delays. At present, the monthly futures premium stands at 7%, up from a bearish 4% earlier in the week.

Part of this hesitation stems from comparisons with competitors. Both BNB (BNB) and Tron (TRX) are trading well above their November 2021 all-time highs, while ETH continues to struggle below its $4,868 peak. This…