ETH rally turns Radiant Capital exploit into $103M trade

The trove stolen from decentralized lender Radiant Capital in October 2024 has nearly doubled in value as Ether climbed, blockchain data shows.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Radiant Capital was hacked in mid-October 2024 when the crosschain lending protocol suffered a $58 million cybersecurity breach on BNB Chain and Arbitrum.

Radiant Capital lost about $58 million in the breach. The attacker later swapped proceeds into Ether (ETH) and now holds 21,957 ETH worth about $103 million, according to Lookonchain, up from an estimated $58 million at the time of the exploit.

Ether closed Oct. 15, 2024, above $2,300, and was trading above $4,700 Thursday at the time of writing.

Related: US spot Ether ETFs see 2nd-biggest inflows on record as ETH nears new high

Not an investment bet, analysts say

The investigations team at blockchain forensics firm AMLBot told Cointelegraph that, although it ultimately led to profit, the trade was likely an unintended consequence of evasion techniques. “It’s more likely that the exploiter’s decision to hold ETH was driven by operational security and liquidity considerations, rather than a deliberate market-timing strategy,” the AMLBot team said.

The investigators said attackers tend to swap stolen funds to Bitcoin (BTC) or ETH. Two reasons for this are to mitigate the risk of token freezes and because Bitcoin and Ether are already supported by highly liquid market infrastructure and widespread support. This makes it easier to move them across ecosystems.

“Given these patterns, it’s more plausible that the ETH holdings simply benefited from broader market growth rather than being the result of a conscious investment bet on price appreciation,“ the investigators concluded.

Ether’s price rises as its supply dwindles

Ether’s price rise since the exploit is attributed to multiple factors.

Ether spot ETFs started trading in the US in late July 2024 — closing one year of trading last month — and have seen a total net US dollar flow of $12.12 billion so far, according to CoinGlass data.

This data also shows that large-scale accumulation through regulated means has been ongoing, leading to a decrease in the amount of Ether on exchanges. More assets are now out of circulation thanks to staking, with mid-June reports showing that the supply of staked Ether reached an all-time high of over 35 million ETH. More recent data from Dune Analytics shows that this number…