The upcoming $3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) monthly options expiration on Sep. 29 could prove pivotal for the $26,000 support level.
BTC price faces serious headwinds
On one side, Bitcoin’s recognition in China appears to be strengthening, following a judicial report from a Shanghai Court that acknowledged digital currencies as unique and non-replicable.
Conversely, Bitcoin’s spot exchange trading volumes have dwindled to a five-year low, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Analyst Caue Oliveira pointed out that a significant factor behind this decline in trading activity is the growing fear surrounding the macroeconomic outlook.
Despite the increase in long-term holders, the reduced trading volume poses a risk in terms of unexpected volatility. This means that price swings resulting from liquidations in derivative contracts could potentially cause structural market damage if there aren’t enough active participants.
Furthermore, there is growing unease among traditional financial institutions when it comes to handling crypto-related payments.
JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in North America, is reportedly prohibiting transfers “related to crypto assets” within its retail division, Chase. The stated rationale is to protect against potential involvement in fraudulent or scam activities.
JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in North America, is reportedly prohibiting transfers “related to crypto assets” within its retail division, Chase. The stated rationale is to protect against potential involvement in fraudulent or scam activities.
Lastly, Bitcoin holders are feeling apprehensive as the Dollar Strength Index (DXY), a measure of the dollar’s strength against other currencies, reached 106 on Sep. 26, its highest level in 10 months.
Historically, this index exhibits an inverse correlation with risk-on assets, tending to rise when investors seek safety in cash positions.
Bitcoin bulls too optimistic?
The open interest for the Sep. 29 options expiration currently stands at $3 billion. However, it is expected that the final amount will be lower due to bullish expectations of Bitcoin’s price reaching $27,000 or higher.
The unsuccessful attempt to break above $27,200 on Sep. 19 may have contributed to overconfidence among Bitcoin investors.
The 0.58 put-to-call ratio reflects the imbalance between the $1.9 billion in call (buy) open interest and the $1.1 billion in put (sell) options.
However, if Bitcoin’s price remains near $26,300 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug….
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