Bitcoin’s pre-halving rally may start soon — Here’s why

In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman discusses Standard Chartered bank’s $120,000 Bitcoin price expectation based on the halving impact. According to the report, increased miner profitability due to a pre-halving rally would “reduce the net BTC supply.”

Pechman, on the other hand, doesn’t acknowledge the thesis, given that the mining difficulty will continue to increase and the news confirming Riot Platform’s investment in new ASIC equipment. In fact, the mining difficulty increased by 73% in the last 12 months, while the Bitcoin (BTC) price increased by 58%.

Regarding the $50,000 Bitcoin year-end price prediction, Pechman believes the number is too optimistic, given the low odds of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by then. However, if the ETF is approved within the next six months, an estimated $5 billion potential inflow could catapult Bitcoin’s price above $70,000.

For 2024, Pechman increases his odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval to 30%, while Bloomberg analysts expect even higher chances at 50%. Given the sheer size of BlackRock and Fidelity, Pechman believes a $10 billion inflow in the first couple of months following the ETF launch is feasible, suggesting Standard Chartered’s $120,000 expectation could be on the conservative side.

The expectation of an ETF approval may impact the pre-halving rally, according to Pechman, who also explains why investors may be anticipating the movement. Consequently, the pre-halving effect may get longer or shorter if investors dump before the event happens. Pechman’s recommendation is to avoid the fear of missing out or FOMO. If you missed an entry spot, traders should either wait for the dollar cost average or sit and wait.

Lastly, Pechman analyzes the latest Glassnode on-chain analysis report on re-accumulation at $30,000. According to Pechman, “return to mean” is also widespread in traditional markets. When investors are lost without the necessary conviction to move the price, they will refer to the previous two-year or three-year average levels.

To hear more about Pechman’s strategy for the Bitcoin halving and the impact of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, listen to The Market Report, exclusively on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.