AI automation could take over 50% of today’s work activity by 2045: McKinsey

In just 22 years, generative AI may be able to fully automate half of all work activity conducted today, including tasks related to decision-making, management, and interfacing with stakeholders, according to a new report from McKinsey & Co.

The prediction came from the management consulting firm report on June 14, forecasting 75% of generative AI value creation will come from customer service operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, as well as research and development positions.

What’s the value and impact of #generativeAI? Companies across countless industries are already experimenting with its applications. Our new research has found that the value at stake is huge–potentially $2.6 to $4.4 trillion in #productivity annually➡ https://t.co/pY5ACuvoL1 pic.twitter.com/ecZ0RvtzHl

— McKinsey & Company (@McKinsey) June 14, 2023

The firm explained that recent developments in generative AI has “accelerated” its “midpoint” prediction by nearly a decade from 2053 — its 2016 estimate — to 2045.

McKinsey explained that its broad range of 2030-2060 was made to encompass a range of outcomes — such as the rate at which generative AI is adopted, investment decisions and regulation, among other factors.

Its previous range for 50% of work being automated was 2035-2070.

The consulting firm said, however, the pace of adoption across the globe will vary considerably from country to country:

“Automation adoption is likely to be faster in developed economies, where higher wages will make it economically feasible sooner.”

Generative AI systems now have the potential to automate work activities that absorb 60-70% of employees’ time today, McKinsey estimated.

Interestingly, the report estimates generative AI will likely have the “biggest impact” on high-wage workers applying a high degree of “expertise” in the form of decision making, management and interfacing with stakeholders.

What will be the impact of generative AI on work, and how much value could it generate?

Explore the full research: https://t.co/A3GOfAGrHC pic.twitter.com/Qed0DhZsyE

— McKinsey Global Institute (@McKinsey_MGI) June 14, 2023

The report also predicts that the…