Traders might rejoice now that Bitcoin price ventured above $17,400, but twenty-seven long days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) last breached the $17,250 resistance.
On December 13, after a two-week-long lateral movement, Bitcoin posted a 6.5% rally toward $18,000 and even though the current movement still lacks strength, traders believe that a retest of the $18,250 resistance remains possible.
To start the week, the S&P 500 index rose to its highest level in twenty-six days on Jan. 9. Weak economic data had previously fueled investors’ expectation of slower interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) and the Jan. 12 Consumer Index Report (CPI) could lend some credence to this expectation.
On Jan. 6, German retail sales data showed a 5.9% year-on-year contraction took place in November. In the U.S., economic activity in the services sector contracted in December after 30 consecutive months of growth. The Services PMI reading was 49.6%, and readings below 50% typically point toward a weakening economy.
Investors anxiously wait for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Jan. 12, which is more likely to dictate bets on whether the FED will raise interest rates by 0.25% or 0.50% in early February. Economists expect inflation to increase by 6.6% over the prior year in December, so a weaker-than-consensus CPI could further boost markets’ performance.
Still, the impacts of a year-long bear market continue to play out as digital asset manager Osprey Funds reportedly laid off most of its staff during the second half of 2022. The investment company offers crypto products for its accredited investors’ brokerage accounts, including a trust.
Analysts should focus on Bitcoin derivatives to understand if the recent positive price action has finally turned crypto investors’ sentiment positive.
The futures premium shows sentiment is slowly improving
Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Meanwhile, professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.
The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade below such a range, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — typically, a bearish indicator.